Risk Perception

People respond to a risk or hazard in ways consistent to their perception of that risk. It is their perception that influences behavior or action (Mileti 1993). Understanding public perception of natural hazards is necessary in order to impact hazard preparedness, and can be a problem because residents of at-risk areas often have inaccurate beliefs about the hazard agent and its impacts, are unaware of available adjustments, and may have erroneous beliefs about the effectiveness of the adjustments of which they are aware (Lindell and Perry 1993). Research shows that adaptive actions are motivated by awareness of the hazard, knowledge of how it can affect the community, and feelings of personal vulnerability to the potential consequences (Janis and Mann 1977).

· Frequent exposure to hazard relevant information does not automatically elicit attention and comprehension, let alone the acceptance, personalization, and retention required to initiate hazard adjustments (Mileti and Sorensen 1987).

· Lindell and Perry argue that people do not actually need to understand the hazard in order to be motivated enough to prepare, but they need to believe that the hazard really exists and that protection is needed (1993).

Often, the problem for people to take action regarding a hazard is that they do not believe it really exists. One reason to explain this is that people rely on past experience. In 1992, Hurricane Andrew destroyed 80,000 homes and put 12 insurance companies out of business with its unprecedented force. Even though evacuation was mandatory in southern Florida, many people refused as never before in their memory had a hurricane traveled as far inland as Andrew. The people who were reluctant to evacuate were simply making rational decisions based on past experience (Tobin and Montz 1997).

Resources on Risk Perception

Carbone, Jared, et al. 2006. “Can Natural Experiments Measure Behavioral Responses to Environmental Risks?,” Environmental & Resource Economics, 33: 273-297.

*This volume (33), number 3, of Environmental & Resource Economics is a special issue focusing on risk perception, valuation, and policy. It is highly economic, and most of the articles are based on risk in industrialized countries, with the exception of one article on valuation of air pollution in China. Click here, to view the edition.

Armas, I. (2006) “Earthquake Risk Perception in Bucharest, Romania.” Risk Analysis, 26(5): 1223-1234.

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Bouyer, M. et al. (2001) “Personality Correlates of Risk Perception.” Risk Analysis, 21(3): 457-465.

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Brenot, J. S. Bonnefous, and C. Marris. (1998) “testing the Cultural Theory of Risk in France.” Risk Analysis, 18(6): 729-739.

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Cronin, Shane, et al. (2004) “Participatory methods of incorporating scientific with traditional knowledge for volcanic hazard management on Ambae Island, Vanuatu.” Bulletin of Volcanology, 66: 652-668.

*Click here, to view the article or click here to download it.

Gregory, R. and R. Mendelsohn. (1993) “Perceived Risk, Dread, and Benefits.” Risk Analysis, 13(3): 259-264.

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Hakes, J. and W. Viscusi. (2004) “Dead Reckoning: Demographic Determinants of the Accuracy of Mortality Risk Perceptions.” Risk Analysis, 24(3): 651-664.

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Janis, I. and L. Mann. (1977) Decision Making: A Psychological Analysis of Conflict, Choice and Commitment. New York: Free Press.

Jianguang, Z. (1993) “Environmental Hazards in the Chinese Public’s Eyes.” Risk Analysis, 13(5): 509-513.

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Johnson, B. (1992) “Advancing Understanding of Knowledge's Role in Lay Risk Perception,” American Sociological Association.

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Johnson, B. (2004) “Arguments for Testing Ethnic Identity and Acculturation as Factors in Risk Judgements.” Risk Analysis, 24(5): 1279-1287.

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Johnson, F. and A. Fisher. (1989) “Conventional Wisdom on Risk Communication and Evidence from a Field Experiment.” Risk Analysis, 9(2): 209-213.

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Lindell, M. and R. Perry. (1993) “Risk Area Residents’ Changing Perceptions of Volcano Hazard at Mt. St. Helens.” In Prediction and Perception of Natural Hazards, J. Nemec, J. Nigg, and F. Siccardi (eds). Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

McDaniels, T. (1988) “Chernobyl’s Effects on the Perceived Risks of Nuclear Power: A Small Sample Test.” Risk Analysis, 8(3): 457-461.

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McDaniels, T., L. Axelrod, and P. Slovic. (1995) “Characterizing Perception of Ecological Risk.” Risk Analysis, 15(5): 575-588.

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Mileti, D. (1993) “Communicating Public Earthquake Risk Information.” In Prediction and Perception of Natural Hazards, J. Nemec, J. Nigg, and F. Siccardi (eds). Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Mileti, D. and H. Sorensen. (1987) “Natural Hazards and Precautionary Behavior.” In Taking Care: Why People Take Precautions, Neal D. Weinstein (ed). New York: Cambridge University Press.

Nemec, J. (1993) Prediction and Perception of Natural Hazards, Springer. 

Rogers, G. (1997) “The Dynamics of Risk Perception: How Does Perceived Risk Respond to Risk Events?” Risk Analysis, 17(6): 745-757.

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Sandman, P. et al. (1993) “Agency Communication, Community Outrage, and Perception of Risk: Three Simulation Experiments.” Risk Analysis, 13(6): 585-598.

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Savage, I. (1993) “Demographic Influences on Risk Perceptions.” Risk Analysis, 13(4): 413-420.

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Sjoberg, L. (2000) “Factors in Risk Perception,” Risk Analysis, 20(1).

*Click here, for this article online.

Satterfield, T. et al. (2004) “Discrimination, Vulnerability, and Justice in the Face of Risk.” Risk Analysis, 24(1): 115-129.

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Tobin, G. and B. Montz. (1997) Natural Hazards: Explanation and Integration. New York: The Guilford Press.

Tobin, G., and L. Whiteford. 2002. “Community Resilience and Volcano Hazard: The Eruption of Tunguahua and Evacuation of the Faldas in Ecuador,” Disasters, 26(1): 28-48.

*Click here, to view the article or click here to download it.

Wilken, Gene. 1992. Agroclimatic hazard perception, prediction, and risk-avoidance strategies in Lesotho, Institute of Behavioral Science.